Keel Infrastructure Corp (Nasdaq: KEEL) (TSX: KEEL) shares dropped roughly 15% on the Nasdaq on July 2, while Bitcoin held near US$62,000. For the recently rebranded Keel Infrastructure, formerly known as Bitfarms, its stock price slide likely reflects the market’s concern about potential delays in leasing the company’s future High-Performance Computing (HPC) data centers.
In 2025, Keel Infrastructure made the strategic decision to pivot away from Bitcoin mining to developing North American HPC infrastructure. Its pitch to investors: the company plans to integrate power, land, and connectivity to enable long-term growth for its customers.
For Hyperscalers, neocloud operators, etc (Keel Infrastructure’s future customers), the race is on to secure gigawatts. Meanwhile, new grid interconnections can take four to 10 years in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) and the Pacific Northwest.
Landowners with zoning and firm power paths have seen their stock prices surge in 2026, even as Bitcoin struggled. The question is: which operators convert secured megawatts into long-dated leases before the market prices every option.
Keel Infrastructure is advancing a 2.2-gigawatt pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington, and Quebec. Its near-term focus is three U.S. campuses: Panther Creek (350 megawatts, PJM), Sharon (110 megawatts), and Moses Lake (18 megawatts, Quincy corridor).
Management’s 2026 goal is one lease at each site, with ready-for-service capacity around 2027, funded by roughly $533 million in liquidity as of May 2026. Most of Keel Infrastructure’s revenue still comes from legacy Bitcoin mining; AI data center rent has not yet started.
Stripping away the AI narrative, Keel Infrastructure is still mostly a Bitcoin miner. The company’s first quarter 2026 continuing operations generated $37 million of revenue, down 23% year over year, and that line is mining income, not data center rent.
Cost of revenue was $63 million, producing a gross loss and a negative 71% gross margin as power and network difficulty outran block rewards. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $17 million. The pivot is funded from cash, Bitcoin, and equity markets, not landlord economics. No signed AI lease has been announced.
The bull case on paper is megawatt scarcity: Permitted PJM and Pacific Northwest sites where greenfield interconnect can take years. A signed lease at Panther Creek would convert option value into contracted cash flow and unlock project-level financing.
Keel Infrastructure traded near $1 per watt of expected 2027 gross capacity on an enterprise-value basis in May 2026, below AI infrastructure peers such as IREN Ltd (NASDAQ: IREN) and Core Scientific Inc (NASDAQ: CORZ) that already carry hyperscale contracts.
The bear case is simpler. Investors assign a market capitalization of nearly $3 billion for Keel Infrastructure on promise, not rent. Roughly $197 million of unencumbered Bitcoin adds volatility, and $400 million plus of convertible notes raises dilution fears.
Until Keel Infrastructure signs a named, investment-grade tenant, its stock will continue to be risky. Next watchpoints include lease announcements, Bitcoin wind-down, and second quarter results expected in August 2026.
TSX-listed shares of Keel Infrastructure have soared more than 383% over the past 52 weeks to $6.87. The company has roughly 604 million shares outstanding.
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